A few people asked how the fork simulation actually works. The modeling choices matter, and I'd rather they be on the table before I start sharing results. Here's the short version... A contested soft fork (one where a chain split occurs because there isn't agreement in the network) is a decision problem for the entities who run Bitcoin's infrastructure. So the model represents them as three classes of actor, using the stakeholder taxonomy from the Blockchain Consensus Analysis Protocol (BCAP) as a starting point. https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap Economic nodes: exchanges, institutional custodians, payment processors, merchants: weighted by the BTC they hold or the volume they transact. Mining pools: weighted by hashrate, each with its own ideology and tolerance for losses. User nodes: retail operators running their own full nodes with some amount of custodied Bitcoin and option to have hashrate representing solo miners. Each actor re-evaluates the same way: first the rational choice (which fork is worth more / which do I hold), then ideology (am I committed enough to eat a loss), then inertia (is the gap big enough to justify moving). One pipeline, applied independently by every actor. Then we vary what we can't know in advance, how adoption splits, how committed the pools are, how much conviction each actor has across thousands of scenarios on real Bitcoind nodes using warnet and watch what the network does. https://github.com/bitcoin-dev-project/warnet Results coming this week. Full picture at UW BRI, July 13–17. #softfork #Bitcoin #UWBRI