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kylefisk
Member since: 2023-02-01
kylefisk
kylefisk 15h

β€œWhat I think is really interesting though, we've spoken when we've talked about these sorts of stories in the past about Isaac Asimov's psychohistory and other rifts. I want to try a new riff here, which is an interesting thought experiment. What happens when hyper forecasting is not just super forecasting, hyper forecasting is connected to capital markets? What happens when the AIs, which are already AI algo traders, are already completely dominating by volume public securities markets? What happens when they have better internal autoregressive models of humanity than humanity does of itself? That's in some sense, it's in the same sense in which large language models were trained off of the autoregressive task of predicting the next token of Internet text better than humans can. Now, LLMs can predict to, at least from a perplexity perspective, the next token I'm going to say in this sentence probably faster than I can generate it myself. What happens when these hyper forecasters are able to generate the next actions by humanity collectively faster than humanity can take it? That's sort of the ultimate market squeeze efficiency outcome, where literally I think capital markets will be where this is maximally interesting where the prediction is actually preemptively shaping the action of the market. And I think those who were so dismissive of the efficient market hypothesis, I think the EMH is going to be crowned king of the capital markets once hyper forecasters like this are ultimately plugged in, which seemingly is imminent.” From Moonshots with Peter Diamandis: Urgent Update- AI Sputnik Moment: Kimi K3 Released w/ Emad Mostaque | Ep. 272, Jul 19, 2026 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/moonshots-with-peter-diamandis/id1648228034?i=1000777429998&r=4622 This material may be protected by copyright.

kylefisk
kylefisk 26d

β€œFor example, people used to believe that the people who lived in the Antipodes would fall off. And that was scary. But then, when somebody sailed around the world and we all got used to it, and now we travel around in jet planes and everything, we have no problem about feeling that the earth is globular. None whatever. We got used to it. So in the same way, Einstein's Relativity Theories, the curvature of the propagation of light, that began to bother people when Einstein started talking like that. But now we are all used to it. Well in a few years, it will be a matter of common sense to very many people that they are one with the universe. It will be so simple. And then maybe, if that happens, we shall be in a position to handle our technology with more sense. With love instead of with hate for our environment.” From Alan Watts Being in the Way: Ep. 40 – Nature of Consciousness, Jun 24, 2026 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alan-watts-being-in-the-way/id1569521748?i=1000774103127&r=1694 This material may be protected by copyright.

kylefisk
kylefisk 26d

β€œWhat you see out here is a neurological experience. Now if that hits you and you feel sensuously that that's so, you may think that then therefore the external world is all inside my skull. But you've got to correct that with the thought that your skull is also in the external world. So you suddenly begin to feel, well, wow, what a kind of a situation is this? It's inside me and I'm inside it, and it's inside me and I'm inside it. But that's the way it is. This is the, what you could call transaction rather than interaction between the individual and the world. Just like, for example, in buying and selling, there cannot be an act of buying unless there's simultaneously an act of selling and vice versa. So the relationship between the organism and the environment is transactional. The environment grows the organism, and in turn, the organism creates the environment. The organism turns the sun into light, but it requires there to be an environment containing a sun for there to be an organism at all. And the answer to it is simply, they're all one process.” From Alan Watts Being in the Way: Ep. 40 – Nature of Consciousness, Jun 24, 2026 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alan-watts-being-in-the-way/id1569521748?i=1000774103127&r=1306 This material may be protected by copyright.

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