Here's the "No BS" macro news for today. -The Fed projected, back in early 2024, that they would likely end balance sheet reduction around this time and transition toward gradually increasing their balance sheet in line with nominal GDP (so that banks' fractional reserve lending remains unaffected with current regulations). -It got pulled forward slightly, perhaps two or three months, by the government shutdown overfilling the Treasury cash account (i.e. sucking cash out of the broader financial system). -The Fed previously announced they would stop reducing their balance sheet. Today they said they would start gradually increasing it. Powell said the baseline is $20-$25 billion per month, but due to current liquidity shortages and April tax day (which drains liquidity), they plan to increase it by $40 billion per month through April (which afterward in May, conveniently, is when Powell will be replaced as chairman with a presumably more dovish chairman). -They're focusing on printing money to buy short-term duration Treasuries, not long-term. This is for the financial system, not economic stimulus per se, and so they won't be calling it QE. -The Fed will now be structurally expanding their balance sheet while inflation is above their own target. -This is a gradual print scenario. It's bullish for liquidity and liquidity-correlated assets, in general. It's not explosively bullish, but it does lean dovish. -Nothing stops this train.

There's an annual contest for indie-published fantasy books called SPFBO, and it's been running for ten years now. When looking for indie novels to read, that's not a bad list to start from. Anyway, here's a review of "The Thief Who Pulled on Trouble's Braids", which was the first winner of that contest. It's the first in a five-book series that focuses on a thief named Amra Thetys. Amra is kind of your typical anti-hero thief; she grew up in a rough spot and does some bad stuff but basically has a heart of gold. At about 200 pages, the book is a short read, but I guess the series as a whole is like one 1,000+ page book. I liked the first half quite a bit. It's fast-paced and gets right into the story. The prose is solid enough. Amra quickly gets pulled by her friend into some criminal mess, with some dark omens sent her way, and we go from there. In particular, a bloodwitch came up to her on the street once she got pulled into the mess, and said: "I See blood, and gold," she said, her voice gone all hollow. "I Hear a mournful howl. Fire and Death are on your trail, girl, and behind them the Eightfold Bitch makes her way to your door. One of Her Blades has noticed you. But will it find your hand, or your heart? Unclear, uncertain..." Amra was freaked out, because bloodwitches can turn your blood to rust and see the future. So I was like, "alright, you've got my attention." But the second half was somewhat disappointing. Things were just kind of happening, there was a rapidly expanding character list, magic kind of just did whatever it needed to, and I wasn't very emotionally attached to anyone. The ending was okay, but it primarily set up the rest of the series. I probably won't pick up the second book in the series anytime soon, though from the ratings and how this one went, I could imagine the five of them all being a fun enough read.

Mt Everest had its first documented climb in 1953. The first person went to space in 1961. It's kind of crazy to think about how "new" mankind's spread over the world is. My father was already a teenager the first time someone climbed Everest, and in his twenties by the time someone went to space. If we start the "modern era" as roughly coinciding with the telecommunications age (ie the dawn of the cross-continental telegraph in the1860s), it's less than two co human lifetimes old. Everything is new.

Whenever we go to the local Italian restaurant, the waitress asks if we want dessert or coffee afterward. I know it's a common thing, but for the life of me I don't know why anyone would want coffee after a big meal at night.

My December public macro newsletter has been published. You can check it out here: https://www.lynalden.com/december-2025-newsletter/

What if the world as you knew it consisted of infinite rooms and staircases, each partially flooded and filled with strange statues, and it only had two living people in it? That would be nuts right? Anyway, I read Piranesi, by Susanna Clarke, and that’s the world in which the titular character finds himself. Notably, Clarke has only written two novels in her career, they were 16 years apart (“Jonathan Srange and Mr Norrell” in 2004 and “Piranesi” in 2020), and both were award-winning massive bestsellers, beloved by critics and readers alike. Piranesi lives in a realm of infinite rooms and staircases, inhabited by birds and fish and shined on by the sun and moon and stars, and in which seawaters routinely rise and fall. He has a rather meager existence as he lives off fish and seaweed and catalogues the various rooms, and he is grateful that the world is generous enough to provide for him. For the most part he’s the only person around, except occasionally he runs into one more guy he calls “The Other.” He also knows of 15 human skeletons that he has names for. Clarke did plenty of historical research and makes a lot of allusions in the work. It’s rather literary, and the whole thing is quite a surrealist artsy story and it’s much loved by people who enjoy sophisticated things. I am, perhaps, not very sophisticated. To me this felt like the kind of book I’d be assigned to read in high school. It was rather dry and boring to my unsophisticated palate, though short enough to breeze through in several sittings. I predicted most of the mystery in advance, and as things happened I’d be like, “alright.” When something occasionally did surprise me, it was always mildly to the downside. Like someone tells you lunch will be a mystery, and then come lunchtime it’s revealed to be a sandwich. I know a lot of people who rave about this book, so it’s been on my to-read list for a while, and now I have that good feeling of finished homework. When people talk about Piranesi I can be like, “Ah, yes, Piranesi. Fine literature, that is.”

Foxes shouldn’t wear socks.

Cyborg sent me a copy of her comic. With her diamond hands, she fights the money printer. On the front of the cover is a QR code that goes to her Nostr profile. She has of course posted this to her 200k+ followers on X as well. For those who are not familiar, Cyborg has won championships across five organizations including UFC, and she has been active on Nostr for years now. Hands down the coolest npub here. Give her some zaps and follows!

You know what show ended right when it should have? Breaking Bad, of course.

The treasury buybacks are a liquidity management tool, because the amount of debt outstanding has outpaced trading volumes of that debt. It improves the liquidity of off-the-run securities. They are a net issuer, not a net buy-backer. The buybacks are a sign of fiscal dominance but not something I put much macro weight on.

Too many shows and book series go on for too long. Rather than end at an ideal spot to maximize the art/story of it all, they keep going until the creators get bored or the money isn't flowing anymore.

Finally getting a moment to start watching The Boys season 4. Watched up to season 3 a while back, which is where it was up to at the time. Anyone else watch it?

I hardly watched any, but it would be Bladerunner 2049.

This is my model portfolio for mass audiences, many of which would otherwise have zero. It’s not my recommended allocation for people who have studied bitcoin extensively.